Minder mensen, minder onderwijs?

14 juli 2010

aldus ScienceGuide,

 

14 juli 2010 - Vergrijzing en krimp van de bevolking zijn in Duitsland aan de orde van de dag. Wat dat gaat inhouden voor kennisinstellingen en wat kunnen wij daarvan leren? Ook in Nederland gaat de krimp van de bevolking de kennissector raken.

In an effort to empirically analyze Germany's educational landscape, a group of independent scientists regularly publishes a report on education in Germany. This so called 'Bildungsbericht' is published by the German Institute for International Educational Research (DIPF) and financed both by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the federal state Ministers of Education. The extensive research piece entails all stages of education from childhood and school education to vocational, higher and adult education and bases its findings on respective indicators.

 

An aging Knowledge Society

The main issue of this year's ´Bildungsbericht 2010´ is the impact of demographic changes on educational institutions. Just as almost all EU countries, Germany suffers from an aging population with birth rates stagnating around 1,37 children per woman. Especially educational institutions are challenged by this development and have to adapt accordingly.

By 2025, the report predicts that the number of people participating in educational institutions will decline by 15 %. Particularly schools will be dealing with less pupils relieving pressure in this phase of education. Universities, however, are expected to constantly face high numbers of freshmen until 2025. This trend is aggravated by the fact that Germany is moving towards a Knowledge Society where an academic education becomes a prerequisite for most jobs on the labor market.

According to the DIPF researchers, the number of skilled university graduates therefore has to increase significantly to meet this demand. In order to achieve this goal, it will be crucial to integrate students with an immigrant or non-academic background that currently often do not complete their studies.

 

Economic Growth Threatened

Economists predict that with a shrinking and aging active labour force German long-term economic growth will average 1 % per year until 2025. Consequently, the ´Bildungsbericht 2010´ states that this trend has to be countered by involving more women, immigrants and the elderly in the labor markets. This entails offering more opportunities for women to combine career and family while providing the elderly with training programs enabling them to adapt to the demand for flexible skilled workers on the labor markets.

The report warns that if policy makers will not respond to the apparent demographic changes, Germany will face a situation where low-qualified workers cannot find a job while firms desperately lack high qualified professionals. Reforms that are necessary in this process will be expensive and question many of the traditional ways how to go about education.

Nevertheless, the outcome of adapting the educational institution to a new environment will determine whether Germany will be able to compete with rising powers such as India, China and Brazil in the future. While the findings of the ´Bildungsbericht 2010´ were based on German data, many of its results may apply to the Netherlands as well. Also the Netherlands are facing a shrinking and aging labor force that will have to grow more productive in order to guarantee sustained economic growth. Opening up its educational institutions and labor markets to women, immigrants and the elderly will play a crucial role to achieve this.